Backgammon Strategy Community Analysis 012
Community Analysis features interesting positions and comments from our Facebook group “Backgammon Strategy”. Join now for more!
What’s the Correct Move?
Here is what the author (Alec Rome) says about the position:
“Hey there, again, pretty new to the game but getting better. Here's a position I found myself in... I decided to take this as I'm not getting gammoned, and with a couple nice rolls I have backdoor chances at going up 4-0. I was assuming I had 25%, but of course I could easily be wrong.
Was I right in this assumption? Thanks!”
Community Comments
Ian Terry:
“Let's use Kleinman Count to try and estimate the percentage of wins here.
Your opponent is up 8 pips in the race. Spot him another 4 for being on roll to get 12 = D.
The formula for the K-value is K = D^2/(Sum - 4)
So, we get 144/(134-4) = 1.1.
K = 1.1 usually corresponds to a takeable cube (gets iffy at K = 1.2, corresponding to 22% wins for the race trailer).
So, Kleinman on its own says 77% or so. Your distribution kind of sucks compared to his and he has no crossovers left to get home. Is it enough to push it to pass territory? I'd treat this score as normal-ish and guess it's right on the edge. Maybe 21-22%? Pass against fishballs, take against giants seems reasonable.”
Christian Munk Christensen:
“With no adjustments my race formula says 77,4%. However, White has 2 checkers on the ace which could lead to a bit of wastage, and there is the outside checker too. Imagine White’s outside checker were on the 7 and the 2 checkers on ace were on the deuce point: then the pip would be the same but it would be a slightly faster bearoff for White. Hence, a minor adjustment is needed. I will add 0,5% to black’s gwc so we end up with something very close to 78%. 22% gwc is a borderline take for money, and ats you need to drop a slight bit more due to reduced recube vig so I would lean towards a small pass. I think the decision is close enough that opponent factor comes into play: if you’re an underdog, then you should probably take, and if you are the favourite, then you should probably pass.”
Bobbyy Bee:
“I think if this was a money game it would be double/drop. Therefore since you are ahead in the match it it more likely it is a drouble drop than a money game. I think we have a double drop here. Long and short my play would be double drop.”
The Solution
